First day - ground zero

Market has been up and down - with only stock being faithfull enough to keep moving higher - new highs...and something like 20 up days in 21  - remarkable, the gap btw the real economy and financial is at all time high - to some degree this mimicks the days of 2000.

The believe is strong and buzz word headlines like: Dont fade the recovery; All clear and the like makes up for dangerous downside risk.

This manager has been squared out for too long relative to our benchmark. The statistic for this day indicates some risk as per this chart:

The strategic medium term model is relatively flat but do have two major themes on:

Short GBP.USD.

After test of 1.5370/90 day before yesterday, we have initiated short through options in GBP x= 1.500 June futures Apr 09 2010 expiry  @ 66.3 pips (now @ 100).

The strategy being: Bare minimum 1.4770/90, but looking for 1.4400 plus minus VAT.

Bank of England remains the most sanguine central bank on the outlook for world economy:

BOE SENTANCE: Comments in CNBC interview
-- Not MPC's duty to fine tune fiscal policy.
-- As recovery takes hold, fiscal policy needs to be tightened. This
needs to be done over several years, but a significant tightening
will be required.

Provided by: Market News International

Long 10 y notes


The FOMC gave the all clear on low rates environment for longer, and the model went long on the break on wedge:

There is some rumors in the market that the discount rate could be raised (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rumor-another-discount-rate-hike) which initiated some sell-off into our position, which is presently off 14 ticks, but we need to stay faithfull to the model - despite.