Macro Trading by Winston Churchill

Week-end - looking at the different models we got in place to monitor trends the week was kind of non-interesting:

Inflation Model:  -156 bps for the week
Benchmark Model:  -19 bps for the week
Inv. Bank 60/40 model: -23 bps for the week
Doom-and-Gloom: -160 bps for the week
Macro Old school: - 135 bps for the weel
Cyclical Model: + 83 bps for the week

The biggest surprise for the week was the much talked about increase in US Yield which both saw 10 yr. swaps trade through 10 yr. Treasury but also took the US Dollar much higher, even the sleepy USDJPY moved up - and the coming week will be most interesting considering the recent "break outs":

Gold to downside, US Dollar to upside, and Yield to upside.

There are some talks this week-end that the Sunday hike in Israel may be indication of improved believe in world economy as Bank of Israel's President is the well respected Stanley Fischer:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-28/israel-s-fischer-raises-rate-for-fourth-time-since-recovery.html

A few charts for the coming week:

Gold: P&F seems to indicate 1040-00 but resuming trend?

30 Yr. Yield also going into critical week: