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In 2011 we will see:
1. Higher rates, the i-rate cycle turned in Q4. Marginal capital cost increasing as the tower of debt gets stacked higher and higher
2. EU will move either towards fiscal integration or final phase
3. One EU country will go to volentary bankruptcy
4. Major correction in S&P in Q1 - minimum: 1000,00
5. USDJPY goes to 80.00 then 75.00
6. Growth collapses in Q2-2011
7. Market is down 25% not up 25% end of year - the present consensus (December 2010) is 85% of all analyst seeing better 2011)
8. Gold goes to 3.000
9. EURUSD goes to 1.1000, then 1.0000
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2011 CALLS (December 16th 2010)
In 2011 we will see:
1. Higher rates, the i-rate cycle turned in Q4. Marginal capital cost increasing as the tower of debt gets stacked higher and higher
2. EU will move either towards fiscal integration or final phase
3. One EU country will go to volentary bankruptcy
4. Major correction in S&P in Q1 - minimum: 1000,00
5. USDJPY goes to 80.00 then 75.00
6. Growth collapses in Q2-2011
7. Market is down 25% not up 25% end of year - the present consensus (December 2010) is 85% of all analyst seeing better 2011)
8. Gold goes to 3.000
9. EURUSD goes to 1.1000, then 1.0000
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2010
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March
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- An amateurs stap at predicting top in yields...
- The YIELD is everything!
- I can see clearly now....Macro note March 29th 2010
- Week-end - looking at the different models we got ...
- Mean Reversion/ Cycle model SELL S&P on the open
- Model morning....
- RATE ALRT ALRT ALRT
- Everything is up except Bob - sorry the EURO...
- Performance Index
- Pre-Monday Risk picture
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March
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