The inv. bank world is in love with momentum of lagging data which indicates to me, together with FED stopping emergency facilities by end of March that there is REAL RISK of much higher yields from here - however the inflation picture remains benign, so unless the market starts to question the issuance of governments it is likely we will see top in rates by June/July based on this work - however - one has to remeber that in larger scale - yield has been going down since 1981 - hence we could be in for 29 years of rising rates!...
The paradigme of low interest rates looks over - now comes the REAL issue- to invest capital at the higher marginal return - this is a major challange for UK, US and other major debt nations. This recent break in rates could be the most important micro-event for years, but the risk being I am wrong as per usual.
More importantly: We have lived with lower and lower rates for 27/28 years - are you ready for a new paradigm of ever higher rates?
Winston
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