Thursday, November 4, 2010

Post FOMC conclusions?


Click on chart for larger version
Click on chart for larger version
Click on chart for larger version
Click on chart for larger version

It was a classic Bernanke trick - delivered slightly less in terms of per month buying (75 vs 100 bln) but extended the period from six to eight month in total 600 bln. USD - actually smaller than the GS market consensus of 1.000 but big enough to "confirm" the game of currency war, inflating of commodities, and support for the stockmarket.

Bernanke then wrote terrible op-ed in Wash Post defending his line of thinking - let me make one prediction: His Wash Post op-ed will be hybris similar to his comments on "no spill-over effect from housing" back in 2007!  (Link to Bernanke Op-ed)

This is very dangerous game - and if anyone believes Fed and the FOMC will be able to take their hands of the printing press in due time to stop the incoming inflation they know zero about history, zero about policy functions!

This is GUARANTEE for high inflation in Q2 2011 - it's also GUARANTEE that their will be major social tension not only in the US but also btw major industrial nations. (notice: how Russia fights Japan over small island, and China fights Japan over another set of islands) - this is the next step towards TARIFFS and imperfect markets but for now we need to accept there is one major buyers of all assets: FED - and that the NOMINAL DEVALUATION(the US consumer is left with impression his asset rises but their purchasing power disappear as it buys less commodities, gold, houses, travels etc) continues ...........we are now in the 8th inning... enjoy it while it last.

Stategic note:

As can be seen from the four major asset classes - my model is now long ALL ASSETS... ALL, the one risk being with QE2 out of the way we could again focus on Europe - the HISTORIC high spreads in Ireland, Portugal and how Europe with weaker US dollar is falling apart - slowly..





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