The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results - EU fails once again....

 NEWS ALERT :  LCH CLAERNET RAISES MARGIN REQUIREMENTS 4 IRISH BONDS TO 30%

Irish bond market come to a full stop - Rates now @ 850 bps (585 over Germany)

EU failed to come up with ANYTHING but empty rhetoric (see attached)

Ireland resisting the bail-out (They do not want to abolish corporate tax)

Game theory:  There are NO LONGER any montary reason for Ireland to ask for bail-out - under the clauses of EFSF et al, they will end up paying 700-ish rates which it too high - also they have very high foreign debt, meaning walking away or not paying has no domestic implications

We are entering end game on Europe - if EU fails to deal with Irish hurdle then we will see escalating rates and social tension..........9th inning, but the most likely still Germany caving in - and the German Constitutional Court getting involved as specific help for Irish bank must be defined as SUBSIDIES.

Took of 60% of my down-risk yesterday, but remain with RISK OFF as long as model and chart indicates it..... This week-end becomes crucial in Irish-saga and for risk on or of.

W