Wednesday, December 8, 2010

There is only one headline worth my time this morning: 10 year yield in 3.25! Up a stunning 30 bps in one trading session

Market and in particular Investment Banks are caught long 7-10 y. US Treasury fixed income - the IB in their naivety buys everything Ben Bernanke says and I mean everything... its like being at a party with Bono and everyone thinking he is God.... .......and this despite Bernanke NEVER has been right about anything and I mean anything.

Furthermore the investment banks have two reasons for expanding their balance sheets going into year-end (Hat tip: JR)...:
  1. Expanding the balance sheet to hide their loss'  (Bigger balance sheet means ratio of trouble issues becomes smaller)
  2. The Free ride from FED and Treasury.........Funding @ zero - and now buying 320 bps with put option from Bernanke (or it seemed to be a free lunch.......!!!)
Come January 1st  -ALL of the investment banks will be busy selling the same "stock" of fixed income to get balance sheet down and capital ratios up to meet new regulatory requirement.

Bernanke even admitted in the 60 min he has no clue! No clue!  He even issues 100 pct certainties!!!!!!! (BB the tosser' quote on 100 pct control of inflation) - Let me remind him there is only two certainties in life: Tax and death.

This tax-break have ZERO IMPACT on economy despite everyone busy upgrading their growth forecasts as 2 pc of all Americans owns 45% of all assets! There is NO WEALTH EFFECT as the rich and famous are busy leaving the country or at the very least buying Gold, Silver and tangible assets - I do not know Blackstones Scwartzman personally but bite me if this "wife asking him to move to Paris for six month of the year move" is not related to tax and being fed up with the incoming massive tax increases in the US? :-)

I am not naive enough to believe that the market and investors are finally waking up but.... it seems people are starting to realise that the gains in the stock markets are not enough to pay for increase in inputs costs and devaluing purchasing power........Clock is ticking ..... Q1 will see the market down 20 pc to bare minimum 1000.00. Stay long this market at your own peril.

I'm fed up and has been for a long time, now it seems I am no longer alone, this is good news for you, your family and the world - maybe finally we will do something structurally? ......




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