Wednesday, December 1, 2010

The Blame game is on: Germany vs PIIGS


Dear Friends,


Spain and increasingly larger part of Europe feels, correctly, that Germany benefited from the growth of the PIIGS through exports now in time of crisis its not time to go 'alleingang'.

Hardly no news but its interesting for the set-up for next step/level in the EU crisis. We remain fully convinced the EU needs to:

  • Get Germany to do debt-swap for PIIGS which is unlikely both in context of German politics and law, but also from practical stand point, never the less it would be the best solution.....
  • Get ECB involved, but their capital is stretched so a maximum of 30-50 bln. more at best will not convince market, so new "measures" needs to be created!  Which ?

Contagion May Force EU to Expand Arsenal to Fight Debt Crisis  http://goo.gl/IPgjE 

The usual German suspects is out fast denying any gifts coming from Santa Germany....:


German CDU's Dautzenberg Rules Out Eurobonds, Stocking EFSF
2010-12-01 08:43:07.486 GMT
By Rainer Buergin
    Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Germany rejects an extension of the
750 billion-euro European rescue fund or joint bond sales by
euro members to stem contagion spreading across the euro region,
said a senior member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian
Democratic Union.
    "We have to withstand markets testing out" the
preparedness of European governments to take additional steps,
Leo Dautzenberg, CDU parliamentary finance spokesman, said in an
interview in Berlin today.
    "We won't accept a transfer union" in which Germany has
to foot the bill for overspending governments elsewhere in the
euro region, Dautzenberg said.



Chart updates:

10 year yield has been coming off, but this morning back in higher channel... Fridays Non-farm of essence: http://goo.gl/TZaDh

VIX is slowly but steadily going higher despite one big fat range in S&P (1070-1120)... May need Friday Non-farm to get resolution http://goo.gl/vfFxv

Baltic Freight - shipping - the happy days are long gone.... http://goo.gl/yTDqs

EMG Bonds - Can you spell:  C.H.I.N.A monetary tightening?  http://goo.gl/Zx1uo

Gold / GLD - getting close to entry LONG again.. watch MFI confirmation  http://goo.gl/IKDgU

Spanish 10 years - not good...  10 year Spain chart

Good luck




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