Monday, May 10, 2010

The more we change the more we stay the same....Macro



Well, well it took them a long, long time to produce this mockery of a solutions. There seems to be only 40 bln. of real money from government - the remaining 680 ish... is coming from where?

Let me see - you got someone who is deep in the red, who is servicing huge debt, and your solution is for you, the big brother, to start issuing more debt? How is that going to shelter investors from the end game of ......... bankruptcy. Amazingly this game has become one of creating bigger and bigger nominal numbers of support, with less and less substance to how it works.

ECB turnaround in buying Government bonds just cements the utter joke Mr. Trichet is - "We have not even discussed buying bonds he said no later than Thursday" - Well Mr. Trichet, we knew all along you lied, and now we got the proof - AND in the process you show cased that the ECB is NOT INDEPENDENT at all - on contraire........

The LRTO funding and swap lines was predictable - Mr. Geithner/Pres Obama always game for floating markets with liquidity....the Harvard way of of helping markets....go bankrupt..

Long live the FIAT regimes / This line of defence continues 30 years of easy monetary policy as the only solution to any problem.. God forbid any structural changes...... after the first 24/48 hrs of happiness in Brussels, they will be back by Wednesday or next week-end trying to come up with the first 1 trln. EUR plan with no merits to it......

This plan did not adress the real issue: DEBT RESTRUCTURING -  the solution to the crisis was to float markets - this will be good for stocks...untill next crisis - the bubble is getting bigger, and bigger...and the politicians are like parents shouting louder and louder to their kids with less and less reaction .......

Remain sure the world analyst' will be out saying this is a good plan, something which should work, just as they did for every week-end meeting in the last two month..

Oh-by-the-way:...... Merkel lost her poltical power yesterday to SPD - the party which did not support help for Greece - clearly that is good news...

Oh-oh-by-the way.... UK still without government... that also must be good... for EUR critical incoming government....

Yes, the EUR hit a new high in political will survive this morning, I still have a hard time to see what really changed - except we got more debt - the last place I will as an investor the next few years will be in Government debt and never ever will I buy Europe FI - be safe


BELOW is from JP Morgan on this night deal to give you some - "objective observations".....

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Europe Debt Crisis – Substantial Action Unveiled Sun Night

·         There were a series of announcements out of Europe and the US Fed Sunday night that will most likely exceed the expectations of investors heading into the weekend on Friday.  There are three pieces of the plan – a EU720B plan from European governments, substantial promises from the ECB, and the re-opening of FX swap lines.  The ECB made a dramatic u-turn and said it would participate in euro area public and private debt markets (recall that Trichet said last Thurs that the ECB hadn't even considered this option at its last meeting).  The EU720B promise from the various European governments will probably take some time to flesh out and there are still some details to be answered, but the ECB debt purchases could commence at any time and is probably the most unexpected component of the Sun  night announcement.

·         Trading update (as of 10pmET Sun night): SP futures up ~29 points; the Euro is up 1.2%.

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1 – EU720B Stabilization Fund:

·         The EU720B plan consists of government-backed loan guarantees and bilateral loans worth up to €440bn provided by eurozone members; a further €60bn supported by all EU members through expansion of an existing balance of payments facility; and up to €220bn provided by the IMF (per the FT).

·         Elena Salgado, Spain's finance minister, said that the €440 billion would be available over three years, and would need approval from contributing governments. She said a new "special purpose vehicle" would be created to make these loans (WSJ)

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2 - ECB takes several actions:

·         To conduct interventions in the euro area public and private debt securities markets (Securities Markets Program) to ensure depth and liquidity in those market segments which are dysfunctional.  The scope of the interventions will be determined by the Governing Council.  In order to sterilize the impact of the above interventions, specific operations will be conducted to re-absorb the liquidity injected through the Securities Markets Program. This will ensure that the monetary policy stance will not be affected.

·         In order to sterilize the impact of the above interventions, specific operations will be conducted to re-absorb the liquidity injected through the Securities Markets Program. This will ensure that the monetary policy stance will not be affected.

·         To conduct a 6-month LTRO with full allotment on 12 May 2010, at a rate which will be fixed at the average minimum bid rate of the main refinancing operations (MROs) over the life of this operation.

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3 - Swap lines re-established:

·         FX swap lines re-established between the Fed and other central banks, inc. the ECB – "In response to the re-emergence of strains in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets in Europe, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are announcing the re-establishment of temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap facilities"; the BOJ will consider similar actions soon.  http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20100509a.htm

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