What's going on in SPY? Soros thinks it's only 50/50 odds of EU surviving?

Three key charts, but first the down-and-out on the market:

All my model indicates that we are in short-term, medium- and long-term uptrend on the equity markets. The most likely cycle top being in August - or potentially (less likely) btw now and End of May...  I say 65% chance of August and 35% on now-ish.

However, there is clear toppish formation in place as seen in this SPY chart. The momentum no longer supports this move making it highly speculative, and if nothing else, there are REALLY POOR risk reward scenario for being or adding long here - despite the "wonderful" bail-out of Greece over the week-end.

That deal is so poor and implementation and content that I will not even comment on it, but give you link to Soros FT call on only 50/50 chance of EZ surviving: http://tinyurl.com/y2u8qos  

The article got me and my friend Yoshi thinking - and as always Yoshi came up with the better conclusions: "....So my take on this is Soros thinks the Club Med will be out and it doesn't matter what agreement the EU will come up with since more cheap talks without actions will buy the core EUs more time to get Greece run to the IMF, out of the EMU and blame Germany. The Greek yield curve is clearly saying the club med does not mix with the core monetarily and economically"

Strong words and something the market will need to look more seriously at.

Bottom line: Things are good - or at least the consensus is, but... be forewarned that we are entering but seasonally but also cycle-wise toppish part of this equity years, which looks more and more like 5 std.dev move....

W