Quick-update

Just back from having been stranded courtesy of the Icelandic - First they overleveraged and now they disrupt traffic - not easy...

Been very light on trading as I have been waiting for the April 19/21 cycle top to potentially form.

Could it be today? Certainly STOXX50(Europe) turned below its 21 -dma today indicating some top and advance/decline also fading..


Themes right now:

1. Greece and more importantly contagion to Portugal (hit +179 bps over Germany today)
2. Timing of bail-out for Greece (and airlines industry) - the higher the spread goes the faster Greece needs the money + it adds to "minimum" price as no one is supposed to lose by supporting Greece (i.e reference to press conference two weeks ago)
3. Obama and US law makers financial reform bill. The banking industry was hated up until last week - now people wants BLOOD - Yes, there are beginning to be blood in the in street now - watch this play out... 
4. Mid-term election positioning has started - First rush: Who will make and take credit for TOUGH LEGISLATION on banks?
5. Timing - its too early to call for any sort of top, but on the other hand this time period is either make or break - if we "survive" next 48 hrs we will see 1250/1300 if not... a new paradigm is in town.

Positions: Add to Gamma long downside in stocks. Biggest VaR options on EUR downside.