Weber a game changer?

I was very surprised at the so far only rumored, but 99 delta certainty of the departure of Axel Weber as both Bundsbank chief but also as shoe-in candidate to succeed Mr. Soft Trichet at the helm of ECB later this year.

Every way I turn and analyse this event it becomes the biggest surprise in central banking in my life as a trader, and secondly this is hardly the kind of issue Ms Merkel wants on her hand ahead of the EU Council meeting end of March which by definiton and by virtue of politicians and policy makers raising the expectations for an ALL IN SOLUTION to Europe debt problems is the most important EVENT this year for Europe and its future.

Weber seems to lack support primarily in the PIIGS countries, surprise/surprise, which is CLEAR sign no one wants to take the medicin the market needs. Weber was the long-term safety net of this political/economical alchemy experiment with debt!  This is the link to Weber speech the other day which gives some insight into his thinking:  Weber speech
Bottom line:   The market is at EXTREME EUPHORIA - and this Weber thing could be the single event which changes the balances in the market, but more to the point my main game right now: Higher Marginal Costs continues as seen by the next two charts:

Treasury Yield moves - source: Dshort.com

and.... yesterday we hit 15/16 year trend line.....

30 year US Yield (trend channel back to 1980...)


I have given up on predicting the demise of the stock market but from the cyclical aspects of the basic analysis I make it's clear we have higher than normal odds of Mid-February being top in this run.

Stay long cash.

Steen