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In 2011 we will see:
1. Higher rates, the i-rate cycle turned in Q4. Marginal capital cost increasing as the tower of debt gets stacked higher and higher
2. EU will move either towards fiscal integration or final phase
3. One EU country will go to volentary bankruptcy
4. Major correction in S&P in Q1 - minimum: 1000,00
5. USDJPY goes to 80.00 then 75.00
6. Growth collapses in Q2-2011
7. Market is down 25% not up 25% end of year - the present consensus (December 2010) is 85% of all analyst seeing better 2011)
8. Gold goes to 3.000
9. EURUSD goes to 1.1000, then 1.0000
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2011 CALLS (December 16th 2010)
In 2011 we will see:
1. Higher rates, the i-rate cycle turned in Q4. Marginal capital cost increasing as the tower of debt gets stacked higher and higher
2. EU will move either towards fiscal integration or final phase
3. One EU country will go to volentary bankruptcy
4. Major correction in S&P in Q1 - minimum: 1000,00
5. USDJPY goes to 80.00 then 75.00
6. Growth collapses in Q2-2011
7. Market is down 25% not up 25% end of year - the present consensus (December 2010) is 85% of all analyst seeing better 2011)
8. Gold goes to 3.000
9. EURUSD goes to 1.1000, then 1.0000
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2010
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August
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- Growth and market continues down....
- Big week for yields:
- EURUSD break? Indication of increased odds for QE ...
- Hmm... market UP on extremely bad data...
- Reports of the death of mean reversion are premature
- All change again....Closing long with loss of 8 S&...
- Is the QE2 the new Titanic? Macro note
- Adopting long positions in S&P and risk on overall...
- Taking profit on all positions - positioning mysel...
- Deflation link (must listen) & Early thoughts on 2...
- Non-farm as bad as expected now on to FED meeting ...
- 1140/1150 summer high test?
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August
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